I'm Sorry, I was Terribly Wrong - AFC Predictions Review

We have a week and a half until Super Bowl XLI. That will give this post, and next week to review the results of my NFL regular season predictions, and then the week after the Super Bowl to finish up with a review of my postseason predictions.

I do this mostly because it's a humbling experience, and because I'm annoyed at members in the mainstream media who make outlandish predictions and then don't revisit them to show what big idiots they are. While it's obvious to most what a big idiot I am, I still like to do this, for posterity's sake.

Onward...

AFC East:
My predicted order of finish: Miami, New England, Jets, Buffalo

Actual order of finish: New England, Jets, Buffalo, Miami

Comments:

Yes, I was drinking the Kool-Aid like the majority of football fans, and bought into all the Nick Saban hype. I at least got the order of the other three teams correct, and at least correctly picked that the Jets would push the Patriots.

Grade: C-


AFC North:

My predicted order of finish: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland

Actual order of finish: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland

Comments:

Pittsburgh and Cincy actually tied for 2nd in the division, with a slight edge going to Cincy for points scored. I'll give myself some points for getting this division mostly right. Baltimore turned out to be better than expected, and Cleveland worse than expected, and I totally whiffed on Pittsburgh as a playoff team.

Grade: B


AFC South:

My predicted order of finish: Indy, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston

Actual order of finish: Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston

Comments:

Tennessee and Jacksonville tied for 2nd, so I will give myself points again, just like in the North. I nailed Tennessee being tough to play during the last portion of the season, although for all the wrong reasons. Indy is still alive as my Super Bowl contender, and if they win it all, I will have correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner two seasons in a row. Stretching, as all that patting myself on the back is making me sore. I pretty much missed on the Jaguars, although I noted that brain farts during the easy games would hurt them.

Grade: B


AFC West:

My predicted order of finish: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland

Actual order of finish: San Diego, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland

Comments:

Once again, the middle two teams tied, nullifying their order. I absolutely and unequivocally nailed the San Diego pick, and I am going to give myself mad props for that. I also correctly predicted Jay Cutler taking over at QB for the Broncos before the end of the season. I see no major misses, so I feel happy with this division.
Grade: A


Overall, I'm pleased with the way my predictions went for the AFC. Miami was really my only glaring mistake, aside from the middle picks in each division tying instead of finishing in the actual order that I had them. I consider San Diego the only major success from my picks here, because Indianapolis wasn't that tough to figure out.

Overall Grade: B+ I feel that that the success on San Diego outweighs the loss on Miami, and the overall goodness of the picks add up.

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Championship-Level Post

This weekend provided us with a couple of pretty good games. One looked like it was going to be a blowout, then it looked like it was going to be close and then it morphed back into a blowout and stayed there. The other one looked like it was going to be a blowout and another epic failure in a laundry list of missed opportunites, but it turned into a fantastic game that really had a twist at the end that almost no one saw coming. So, here we go with my thoughts on the two games, taken in chronological order by game.

The New Orleans Saints at the Chicago Bears:

Much has been written about the city of New Orleans and how it's been recovering from Hurricane Katrina. Also, much has been conveyed about the Saints and the struggles that they went through last season to simply be able to practice, let alone try and field a competent team. Through these struggles and a season in which they notched three victories and 13 losses, they emerged victorious thanks to a bit of luck and the stupiditiy of the Houston Texans. In other words, they lucked into Reggie Bush, hired a new coach, got a new QB and suddenly things were better. They went from 3-13 to 10-6 and the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Bears played in a division which essentially spotted them six victories. Most people outside of Illinois were pulling for the Saints. Most of the pundits picked them to win. The Bears were essentially underdogs as the top seed in the NFC in their own building. Naturally, this meant that the Bears were going to win. It seems as though God likes watching people being able to play the "no one believed in us" card, which is turning into my least favorite card in sports. It ranks right up there with the "I just wanted to give 110%" card.

All things considered, it was a pretty good performance by the Bears, while the Saints, except for a 14-point burst, essentially pooped down their legs by turning the ball over four times. However, there was something that bothered me something fierce. No, it wasn't that the Bears won. Well, not just that the Bears won. You see, the Saints had just pulled within two points after the afore-mentioned outburst. They fell back another two on a horrible decision by Brees to get an intentional grounding penalty in his own end zone. Then the Bears scored on an odd touchdown pass from Grossman to Berrian. It was odd because he was falling down when he made the catch and rolled into the end zone since the defender that was covering him on the play completely whiffed on an interception. Did he actually make that catch? Was he touched when he was down at all before he rolled into the end zone? Did one of the Saints players cause him to fall to the ground? Did the ball hit the ground at all? These were things that we couldn't be sure of. Sean Payton wasn't certain either. He had his red flag out to challenge the play, but he was waiting for word from the booth about whether to challenge it or not. The word never came. Why? It seems as though the producers (or whoever makes these calls) decided to have an extended shot of the crowd and the Bears celebrating on the sidelines instead of showing the replay. This is important, believe it or not, because NFL rules state that the coaching staff in the booths cannot have any sort of recording mechanism with them to determine whether to challenge. They have to rely on the network replay. No, that's understating it a bit. They have to rely on the network replay. Essentially, you have the fates of teams in the hands of the network that is broadcasting the game. Was the catch actually made? Yes. Did Berrian get in to the end zone before being touched? I think so. That's not the point. The point is that the Saints weren't given the option of reviewing the play because of the decision made in the network truck or somewhere else. This could very well cost someone a game some day. Deep breath. Ultimately, the Saints did nothing more of note in the game after this and lost 39-14.

So now, we have Rex Grossman as possibly the worst QB to ever "lead" his team to the Super Bowl. Of course, if they win, he'll be "Super Bowl-winning QB Rex Grossman." Yeah, that thought kinda makes me ill too.

The New England Patriots at the Indianapolis Colts:

Some people had wanted this contest from the very beginning of the season. Some people seem to be completely bored with another Colts/Patriots playoff game in which Manning will fail miserably through the fantastic scheme that Bellicheck would devise and Brady will pull it out at the end with the help of his clutch kicker. There were only a few problems with this scenario: the kicker was now sporting a horseshoe, Manning played pretty well, it took place in Indianapolis, and Brady's the one that choked.

It looked like a blowout for a bit. The Patriots surged a head for a 21-3 lead, and all of the columnists were getting their laptops warmed up to write scathing articles about how Manning and Dungy just aren't able to get it done come playoff time. I'm sure one of them would "accidentally" throw in a Peyton Marino for good measure. They quickly had to switch this to fantastic praises of his performance and talk about how he was "finally" able to get it done. In fact, my friend Ike seems to be a Peyton Manning fan, and he wrote me an email today that essentially said that Peyton proved something on Sunday. Yes, he was able to beat the Patriots. However, he still has not one the big one, and the stigma of choking in the big game will remain with him until he wins the Super Bowl. That being said, it's also not fair to him to say that he's a choker until we see his entire career in the review mirror and can definitively say whether or not he was able to win championships. Has he been able to so far? No, but he still has probably three years of a career ahead of him.

I'm happy for Peyton, and I'm happy for Tony Dungy. I still look back and wish that the Vikings would have been able to keep him on the staff, but it's fun to see him succeeding with the Colts.

Looking ahead:

The match-up in the Super Bowl should be interesting. Manning and the offense against Urlacher and the defense. The easily-rattled Grossman against a good pass rush from Dwight Freeney and the Colts. A large portion of the nation is going to be pulling for Manning and the Colts to get the final monkey removed from their backs. In fact, I'll be pulling for the Colts. This is unusual for me since I generally pull for the underdog, and the Colts should be fairly well-favored in this game. Which, of course, means that the Bears are probably going to win.

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Mighty Fine Cell Phone

When it comes to owning a cellular phone, I have very few requirements. It has to be functional, it has to have good reception, and it has to be able to take a beating. We've been pretty hard on our phones throughout the years. I have a tendency to randomly forget where I've placed it, and it has a tendency to get dropped a bit. Then, of course, there's the bit about small children wanting to talk to Grandma. We've had one cell phone that couldn't keep its battery cover on and another phone that busted it's hinge so it was hanging by the data connection. It was a sad little phone. This brings us to our present-day phone. It, too, has taken some punishment. However, nothing could have prepared it for what happened over our Christmas break. Insert ominous music here.

We were staying at my aunt's house over Christmas and having a good time. We were playing with the kids in the snow during the day, playing cards well into the night, and gorging ourselves no matter what time it was. Pretty much my idea of a great vacation. It was a day or two before we'd have to start the trek back home, and I thought that I'd call my father-in-law to see what the weather was like to know for what we'd have to plan. I couldn't find our cell phone. So, I asked my wife Anne if she knew where it could be. The exchange went something like this:

Me: Honey, where's the phone?

Anne: I don't know. Where was the last place that you had it?

Me: Last night when I took my pants off before getting into bed.

Anne: Did you take it out of your pockets?

Me: Are you doing laundry?

That's right, the phone was in the wash. Unfortunately, this wasn't at the point where we had just turned on the washer. No, the final spin cycle turned off right before I got to the washer and opened the lid. The cell phone was washed, agitated and spun. The only thing that we didn't do was run it through the dryer, and it shows. The phone just doesn't have a springtime freshness that seems to last all day. I guess we'll have to live with it that way.

Immediately after finding it in the wash, I took out the battery and set it on the counter to dry overnight. I started wondering about how much it would cost to replace it since we wouldn't be due for a phone upgrade anytime soon. Turns out that it would cost us a lot. The next day, I popped in the battery, said a quick prayer and fired it up. The phone worked, but the interior display wasn't working. That's okay, we could live with it the way it was. We were just happy to have a cell phone that worked. But wait, there's more! Later that day, I opened up the phone to make a call, and the display was working. In fact, it's still working just fine. I appreciate a product that's well-engineered and seems to be able to handle a bit of punishment. Therefore, I highly recommend the LG VX5200. Well, unless you want a phone that has that fluffy softness. For that, you'll have to look elsewhere. Sorry.

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It Ain't Me, Babe

Those who know me, or for that matter spend more than twenty minutes with me, know that the Simpsons is one of my favorite shows. I just consider it to be very funny and incredibly well-written. The guys writing it know what they're doing. Besides which, watching it is one of the very few ways that I rebelled during my formative years. Yeah, I was a weenie. Anyway, there was an episode where Bart gains his 15 minutes of fame by becoming the "I didn't do it" kid after causing a mild disaster on television looking at the camera guiltily and saying (imagine this), "I didn't do it." I'm sure that it was, for the most part, the writers' way of pointing out the absurdity of all of the merchandising that was being created at the time with Bart's mug and signature lines ("Don't have a cow, man" and "Eat my shorts) all over them. However, if you want to look at it a different way, it's also a horrible snapshot of our modern culture. We've become a society of "I didn't do it" kids. The Devil made me do it. It's not my fault that I'm overweight, Gigantic Fast Food Place is making me overweight. It's not my fault that I smoke and have emphysema, it's the fault of the cigarette companies for selling a product that I wanted to buy. You can't blame me for having kids that are out of control, it's the fault of their other parent for being too lenient, harsh, absent, violoent video games (a personal favorite), etc. How long until people are suing the cola makers and coffee companies for making a product that makes some people have headaches if they don't have it? How long until we're suing the automobile industry for making a product that lets me drive at an unsafe speed and crash? There are getting to be too many areas in society in which the concept of personal responsibility is nothing more than a nice turn of phrase or something that should be applied to everyone and anyone but the person that we see in the mirror.

I was watching According to Jim tonight since I'm addicted to the TV (blasted broadcast television!) and gravitate towards the situational comedy (I'd blame my father for that, but it'd be too easy). It was an episode in which Jim takes his daughters to a football game and gets into a fight with a fan from the opposing team. He becomes the town hero and ends up being very proud of punching another guy in the face. Of course his wife Cheryl is appalled, and it ends up biting him in the rear when one of his daughters gets upset and punches the other in the face, just like Daddy. Jim's response? Paraphrasing, "It's all of these violent cartoons! Pigs hitting ducks and rabbits walking around without pants? It's a recipe for chaos!" Again, the buck is anyone's responsibility before his. Later in the same episode, after everyone has reconciled and Jim has seen the error of his ways, they are going to have hot fudge sundaes for desert. Well, at least that's the intention before one of the girls (who's around seven) says, "I don't want any. I'm too fat. My butt looks like two hams." Jim looks at Cheryl, who says, "It's all of these fashion magazines that are giving them an unrealistic view of their bodies" while refusing to recognize the words that she herself used earlier.

You want your kids to have a positive self image? Model a good self-image for yourself in front of them. What your kids to respect your spouse? You need to respect your spouse. This is one of the things that I greatly appreciate about my wife, Anne. Even if we have disagreements about exactly what the appropriate consequences are for something or how quickly those consequences were enforced, we don't air those concerns in front of the kids and we never counteract an instituted consequence. That would only serve to undermine the authority of the other.

We even see this attitude in some of the sports' personalities. Terrell Owens always has some excuse for why he didn't play very well or had those three dropped balls. So many excuses except the very obvious one, "I didn't play well, and I need to do better the next time to come through for my teammates." You'd think that wouldn't be too hard for someone who enjoys talking about himself so much already.

All of this, of course, begs the question of whether or not I, your humble writer, am also guilty of passing the blame on to someone else? Of course not. And if I ever have, it must have been the fault of someone else. Oh, I know, it was society. Or maybe it was the gremlins. Yeah, let's go with the gremlins.

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